Gold Price Analysis: Predictions For 2024

Gold Price Analysis: Predictions For 2024

The remarkable performance of Gold price in late 2023, marked by record-breaking highs, took a hit in February 2024 as it dipped below $2,000 per ounce, attributed to higher-than-expected US inflation rates and heightened geopolitical risks due to conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine situations.

However, March 2024 saw a bullish resurgence for gold, reaching new record highs above $2,185. This upturn was fueled by declining US Treasury bond yields and widespread selling pressure on the US Dollar. Despite this bullish trend, market indicators suggest gold is technically overbought, particularly ahead of upcoming key inflation data releases from the US. Let’s delve into Gold price analysis, forecasting its trajectory for 2024 and beyond.

Gold Price Analysis In Recent Years

In recent years, the trajectory of gold prices has been influenced by a multitude of factors, reflecting its role as both a safe-haven asset and a commodity. In August 2020, amidst the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, gold futures surged to a record high of $2,069.40 per ounce. However, from 2020 to 2022, gold experienced a decline.

In 2021, gold prices dropped approximately 3.5%, despite a notable 21% rise in 2020. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, tightened monetary policies to address inflation concerns, which bolstered the US dollar and Treasury yields, consequently dampening demand for non-yielding assets like gold.

Despite aggressive interest rate hikes, gold managed to limit its losses to a mere 0.31% in 2022. The following year, 2023, commenced with a strong start for gold at $1,835.8 per ounce, with a notable 8% gain in the first quarter. Fears of a global recession stemming from continued rate hikes drove this surge, nearly pushing gold to its all-time high of around $2,048 in April.

However, various factors initially restrained the metal’s gains, including the Fed’s pause in rate hikes from July onwards, discussions of potential rate cuts, and a strengthening US dollar. Nonetheless, gold stabilized around $1,900 and rallied in the latter months of 2023, concluding the year with an impressive 13.45% gain, contrasting with a slight decline of 0.13% in 2022.

Gold Price Analysis In Recent Years

Entering 2024, gold traded consistently between $2,040 and $2,050 for two months. Yet, as March unfolded, gold embarked on a bullish trajectory, experiencing a notable upward momentum. On March 8, 2024, it achieved a new all-time high price of $2,185 per ounce. Presently, gold is trading at $2,180, reflecting its robust performance. Notably, the metal posted its largest one-week gain since October, underscoring its resilience and appeal as a safe-haven asset amidst ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.

Factors Affecting Gold in 2024

Gold’s price outlook for 2024 is influenced by several key factors:

  1. Monetary Policy Expectations: The decision by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates remains a pivotal factor affecting gold prices in 2024. With the Fed indicating a potential shift towards rate cuts, analysts are closely monitoring inflation rates and economic indicators for insights into the timing and depth of such cuts. ANZ Research suggests that while market expectations initially favored early rate reductions, steady rates coupled with falling inflation could pose challenges for gold prices. Forecasters like Jakarta-based analyst Lukman Leong anticipate a delay in rate cuts until late April or early May, with Dutch lender ING projecting a gradual decline to 4% by year-end and 3% by mid-2025, contingent upon economic conditions.
  2. Central Bank Demand: The continued robust purchasing behavior of central banks is expected to exert significant influence on gold prices throughout 2024. Forecasts from the World Gold Council Central anticipate central banks to surpass pre-2022 buying levels, providing substantial support to gold prices. Similarly, ING underscores geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties as drivers for sustained central bank purchases. Analyst Ewa Manthey highlights the attractiveness of gold amid instability, projecting ongoing strong demand fueled by geopolitical tensions and prevailing economic conditions.
  3. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe, are anticipated to shape gold price dynamics in 2024. Analysts weigh factors such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as Russia’s actions in Ukraine, as significant contributors to market uncertainty. While some, like Wahyu Laksono, founder of Traderindo, emphasize the temporary nature of geopolitical impacts, others like Ibrahim Assuaibi foresee the potential for easing tensions over the course of the year. However, the persistence of geopolitical frictions, including tensions between the United States and China, as noted by ANZ Research, underscores a continued source of market volatility with implications for gold prices.
Gold trading

Gold Price Predictions for 2024

The stock market has surged by 20% since the dawn of 2024 and gold appears to be charting its own course, defying conventional expectations. The outlook for gold in 2024 appears promising, buoyed by a slew of factors contributing to its upward trajectory.

The journey of gold in recent times has been nothing short of remarkable. Emerging from a slump below the $1650 mark toward the end of 2022, the precious metal witnessed a resurgence, propelled by a wave of investor interest. By 2023, it had breached the $2000 milestone and continued its ascent, reflecting a resurgence of faith in its intrinsic value.

As 2024 unfolds, gold continues to command attention by reaching new highs, fueled by apprehensions rippling through the financial markets. Forecasts from various sources provide a glimpse into the anticipated trajectory of gold prices in 2024.

  • According to Wallet Investor, a steady trajectory is projected, with moderate growth anticipated throughout the year, maintaining XAUUSD above $2,000.
  • Economy Forecast Agency experts foresee a peak of around $2,500 in April 2024, followed by a gradual correction, stabilizing around $2,000 by year-end.
  • Meanwhile, Coin Price Forecast experts anticipate a rise to $2,032 in the first half of the year, with a year-end projection hovering around $2,100.


Gold price trajectory in 2024 promises resilience amidst economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Despite challenges, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset remains strong, underpinned by factors such as central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty. As markets navigate volatility, gold continues to shine as a reliable asset, poised for potential gains in the years ahead.

Also read: Silver Price Analysis: Predictions For 2024

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